honolulutraffic.com

formerly The Alliance for Traffic Improvement

Seeking cost effective ways to reduce traffic congestion on Oahu

 

 

Recalculated costs and revenues for the HOT lanes proposal.

 

Having had extensive conversations with the professionals associated with the design, construction and administration of the Tampa Expressway, the closest highway facility to what we consider appropriate for Honolulu, we have decided to lower the projected cost of the HOT lanes by 10 percent to $900 million. Even this is conservative: READ MORE

 

Secondly, our earlier calculations of the future stream of toll revenues did not take into account the impacts of inflation. The initial $20.0 million revenue projection for tolls was in 2002 dollars, which  increases to $22.0 million in 2005 dollars. In addition, the table below uses the state's forecast of 3 percent annually to show growth through inflation. We also added a half percent annually to allow for toll revenue growth attributable to population growth.

 

The Bond Revenue Growth Rate of 4.2 percent reflects the average rate of growth in general excise tax revenues that the state experienced over the past twenty years.

 

The table below shows that, using these rates the toll revenues will retire $487 million in municipal bonds over 25 years.

 

       
 

Bond Revenue

Toll Revenue

 
 

Growth Rate*

Growth Rate**

 
  4.2% 3.5%  
       

Year

Bond balance

Revenues

 
Beginning $487.000 N/A  
End Yr.1  485.454 22.000  
2 483.073 22.770  
3 479.795 23.567  
4 475.555 24.392  
5 470.283 25.246  
6 463.905 26.129  
7 456.346 27.044  
8 447.522 27.990  
9 437.348 28.970  
10 425.733 29.984  
11 412.581 31.033  
12 397.790 32.119  
13 381.254 33.244  
14 362.859 34.407  
15 342.488 35.611  
16 320.015 36.858  
17 295.308 38.148  
18 268.228 39.483  
19 238.629 40.865  
20 206.356 42.295  
21 171.247 43.775  
22 133.132 45.307  
23 91.831 46.893  
24 47.153 48.535  
25 -1.100 50.233  
       
  * Average growth over past 20 years.
  ** State DBEDT inflation forecast plus
      annual percent real growth.